Observed to Expected Excess Mortality for the United States, Updated December 6, 2020

Here is this week’s refresh of the excess mortality count from the CDC (last updated December 2). The federal agency identified over 335,000 excess deaths across the country since the start of this year (about three thousand more than last week’s estimate). The overall excess mortality rate dropped slightly from 11.6% last week to 11.5% this week. Data from CDC’s National Center of Health Statistics, updated December 2, 2020

Observed to Expected Excess Mortality for the United States, Updated November 28, 2020

This week’s refresh of the excess mortality count from the CDC (last updated November 25). The federal agency identified nearly 331,000 excess deaths across the country since the start of this year (about 17,000 more than last week’s estimate). The overall excess mortality rate rose slightly from 11.3% last week to 11.6% this week. Data from CDC’s National Center of Health Statistics, updated November 25, 2020

Insights From Rapid Deployment of a “Virtual Hospital” as Standard Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic

“Hospital at home (HaH), a care model that provides acute hospital-level care in patients’ homes, has been well characterized. Controlled trials and subsequent meta-analyses have suggested the efficacy of HaH, demonstrating noninferior or even superior mortality, readmission, and length of stay outcomes compared with traditional hospitalization for heterogeneous patient populations. [..] Reasons for low adoption include misaligned or lack of financial incentives and challenges inherent in implementing a complex intervention. For example, even when home hospitalization models have been implemented in the United States in study settings or those with aligned payment incentives, low participation rates have been ubiquitous (ranging … Read More

Observed to Expected Excess Mortality for the United States, Updated November 22, 2020

This week’s refresh of the excess mortality count from the CDC (last updated November 19, I think). The federal agency identified over 314,000 excess deaths across the country since the start of this year (about 10 thousand more than last week’s estimate). The overall excess mortality rate rose slightly from 11.2% last week to 11.3% this week. Data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, updated November 19, 2020

Observed to Expected Excess Mortality for the United States, Updated November 14, 2020

This week’s refresh of the excess mortality count from the CDC (last updated November 12). The federal agency identified over 304,000 excess deaths across the country since the start of this year (about six thousand more than last week’s estimate). The overall excess mortality rate remained at 11.2% compared to last week. Data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, updated November 12, 2020

Observed to Expected Excess Mortality for the United States, Updated November 7, 2020

This week’s refresh of the excess mortality count from the CDC (last updated November 4). The federal agency identified over 298,000 excess deaths across the country since the start of this year (about 4,000 more than last week’s estimate). The overall excess mortality rate decreased from 11.3% last week to 11.2% this week. Data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, updated November 4, 2020

Offline: Managing the COVID-19 vaccine infodemic

“In their 2019 book, The Misinformation Age, Cailin O’Connor and James Owen Weatherall explain how false beliefs persist and spread. They emphasise the social character of fake news. The connections between us in groups or networks enable the propagation of misleading evidence as well as true beliefs. Models of communication show the importance of trust in shaping the spread of beliefs. The greater the distrust among those with different views, the greater the risk of permanent polarisation. We are also prey to conformity bias—a desire to agree with others and to trust the judgments of others. Our predilection to conformity … Read More

Observed to Expected Excess Mortality for the United States, Updated October 31, 2020

This week’s refresh of the excess mortality count from the CDC (last updated October 28 [I think]). The federal agency identified over 294,000 excess deaths across the country since the start of this year (about 5,000 more than last week’s estimate). The overall excess mortality rate decreased from 11.4% last week to 11.3% this week. Data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, updated October 28, 2020

What tests to use, when, why—and why not? Pitfalls of mass testing for COVID-19

“Concerns about hotspots flaring in schools of all types, sports teams, and workplaces lend special urgency to answering how best to limit the spread of COVID-19, and specifically how to test for and track the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the general population. An ongoing public health debate centers on whether we should use sub-optimal tests on a massive scale, testing frequently to overcome their analytical shortcomings. The basic argument was encapsulated in the 9/11 Health Affairs post by Paltiel and Walensky and has two parts. First, that widespread screening will dramatically expand testing capacity and ease ongoing strain on critical supply … Read More

Gilead’s Covid-19 Drug Is Mediocre. It Will Be a Blockbuster Anyway.

“the F.D.A.’s decision to grant the drug full approval — which means the company can now begin broadly marketing it to doctors and patients — has puzzled several outside experts, who say that it may not deserve the agency’s stamp of approval because it is, at best, a mediocre treatment for Covid-19 [remdesivir..]. “I think most people think that because a drug is F.D.A. approved, that means it must work,” said Dr. Aaron S. Kesselheim, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School who studies the drug industry. He and other researchers recently found that less than one-third of new … Read More